The Climate Agency has estimated the impacts of the measures in the Climate budget (Table 2.2.a). Impact calculations for measures in the Climate budget are based on a projection of Oslo’s emissions through to 2030 without any additional measures (the baseline scenario). This projection was prepared by the Centre for Climate Research (CICERO) and is based on the best available knowledge regarding the drivers that will impact on GHG emissions through to 2030.

The projection is subject to considerable uncertainty, partly because of the difficulty of making accurate predictions regarding technological advances which will impact on emissions. Further information regarding methodology and the basis for the calculations can be found in Chapter 2 of the Appendix to the 2022 Climate Budget.

The coronavirus pandemic has so far had major consequences for Oslo. The pandemic has influenced the behaviour of both inhabitants and businesses in Oslo and Norway generally. This behavioural change could impact on emission levels in both the short and the longer term. However, we do not know enough about the restructuring impacts of the coronavirus pandemic, or what will become the «new normal», to include such impacts in the Climate budget’s analyses this year.

The analyses underlying this budget proposal show that the projected emission trends in Oslo, including the impact-assessed measures in the Climate budget, could cut GHG emissions by 26 % in 2022 and by 31 % in 2025, compared with 2009 levels (the dotted green line in the figure below).

A new feature in the 2022 Climate Budget is that emissions reductions are also estimated for measures politically adopted at either central government or municipal level which have not been quantified in Table 2.2a, because the basis for the figures is more uncertain or because of uncertainty regarding when the measure will be implemented (e.g. carbon capture at Klemetsrud).

Measures in this category are:

• Requirements regarding fossil-free construction sites in all new zoning plans (measure 24, Table 2.2b)
• Measure to reduce emissions from road transport (measures 17, 18, 20, 21 and 23, Table 2.2b)
• Zero-emission motorised equipment (measure 26, Table 2.2b)
• Ban on the use of mineral oil for temporary heating (central government) (measure 27, Table 2.2b)
• Carbon capture and storage at Klemetsrud from 2026 (from Table 2.3)

Of these, carbon capture at Klemetsrud will have the greatest impact and will contribute to the decrease in emissions from 2025 to 2026. The requirement for fossil-free and zero-emission construction sites will also have a significant impact towards 2026, and will result in a reduction in emissions almost as large as that from carbon capture in 2030. In the figure, these measures are referred to as “Adopted measures with uncertain calculations” (hatched darker green area in the figure below). If the impact of these measures is included, the total reductions in emissions are estimated to be 28 % in 2022, 39 % in 2025 and 62 % in 2030.

There is considerable uncertainty associated with the Norwegian Environment Agency’s emission inventory for 2009-2019, the emission projections and the projections concerning the impact of measures.

The measures referred to as “New measures under consideration”, are measures which have either been adopted or are the subject of a declaration of intent in the Climate strategy and elsewhere, but where the scope has not been clarified locally and/or nationally. These are measures that are being studied/planned at either local or national level. The final form of the measures could change the emission cuts specified below. The measures have been included to illustrate that a number of climate measures which could contribute to attainment of the climate target for 2030 are currently under development.

These measures include an extended zero-emission zone within Ring 2 from 2026, a gradual increase in prices in the road toll payment system for fossil fuel vehicles (Norconsult concluded that the largest reduction in emissions will be achieved with a price increase of NOK 100 for fossil fuel vehicles per passage compared with zero-emission vehicles in 2030), a carbon tax equivalent to NOK 2,000 in 2030 (without any compensation in the form of reductions in road use tax, etc.), according to the Norwegian government’s Climate Plan, and an increase in the biofuel sales requirement to 40 % in road transport in 2030, also according to the Norwegian government’s Climate Plan. In addition, there is a reduction in emissions linked to the municipality’s incineration of household waste through to 2030, although we have not yet adopted specific measures to eliminate these emissions.

As the figure above shows, the adopted and ongoing climate work could result in a 72 % reduction in emissions in 2030. In order to achieve the 2030 target, it will be necessary to work purposefully in order to reinforce existing measures and implement new ones. This also assumes that additional national measures will be implemented.  There is a difference of 23 percentage points between adopted measures and declarations of intent, and the emissions limit in 2030. If the City Council does not support the identified measures, other measures which are at least as vigorous must be implemented to compensate for this. Despite the very high level of ambition in Oslo’s target for 2030, the city can achieve this target given these prerequisites.

No emission inventory is available for 2020, but the City Government’s 2020 annual report included a warning that the 2020 target was unlikely to be achieved. In the 2022 Climate budget, the City Government is proposing an emissions limit which starts from the last known emission inventory and then proceeds linearly to the target 52 % emission reduction in 2023 and on down to the target of a 95 % reduction in emissions in 2030.

As the figure above shows, it will be very challenging to achieve the target for 2023. Nevertheless, it is still possible to implement additional measures or raise the level of ambition for existing measures. The measures that are implemented may also have a greater or earlier impact than expected, and any improvement in the Norwegian Environment Agency’s emission inventory could more accurately reflect the impact of many key measures in Oslo. These factors could have a major impact on both the calculation of goal attainment and when the goal is attained.

In order to close the emission gap towards both 2023 and 2030, we will be dependent on the climate impacts of a strengthened national policy and the further climate-related efforts of the business community. The Norwegian government must eliminate barriers which prevent emission cuts in the major cities and reinforce the use of instruments in addition to what is set out in the government’s Climate Plan, such as:

• Ensure a national system that creates a climate impact for sustainably produced biofuels over and above the sales requirement, so that Norway achieves 1-2 million tonnes of additional emission reductions through to 2030.
• Introduce an exemption in the road toll ring for trucks powered by biogas. This was adopted by the Oslo Package 3 partnership 2.5 years ago, but the government has still not ensured its introduction. The exemption is likely to lead to a significant increase in the number of biogas-powered cars and more secure sales for the gas for biogas producers.
• Increase purchase taxes for fossil fuel cars, including rechargeable hybrid cars, to ensure that the target of selling 100 % zero-emission cars in 2025 is achieved.
• Ensure that the tax rules for the leasing of cars stimulate the leasing of electric cars rather than fossil fuel cars.
• Continue the Klimasats grant scheme and increase the subsidy to NOK 1 billion, in order to continue to stimulate innovative climate measures around the Norwegian municipalities.
• Secure regulations which permit municipalities to require charging for private parking, e.g. at workplaces, in order to encourage a modal shift to public transport, walking and cycling for travel to/from work.

All these central government instruments will help to close the gap in the pale-yellow hatched area.

The City Council shall strive to achieve the emissions limit year by year in order to achieve the 2030 target, and must therefore actively work to ensure the implementation of both the measures that cannot be quantified with sufficient certainty and the measures that are in process, and develop new and strengthen existing instruments. The 2022 Climate Budget concerns the economic plan period 2022-2025 and is intended to help to steer towards the climate target for 2030.

Based on the above, the City Council proposes the following resolution for the Climate budget under Proposition 1:

The City Council calls on the City Government to work to reduce GHG emissions which follow the emissions limit towards a 95 % reduction in 2030. This entails an emission reduction of 43 % in 2022 and 60 % in 2025, compared with the emission level in 2009. The City Government notes

that the impact of most measures in the Climate budget is not fully or even partially reflected in the emission inventory, and that the distance to target attainment is therefore probably less than what it has been possible to quantify.

The City Council agrees to the measures in Table 2.2a and Table 2.2b in Chapter 2 Climate Budget in Proposition 1. As part of its ordinary reporting to the City Council, the City Government reports on the status of the follow-up of the measures and estimates for the emissions limit in 2022 and 2025. The reporting is based on the status of the implementation of the measures, which are presented in Table 2.2a and Table 2.2b in Chapter 2 Climate Budget in Proposition 1, as well as the indicators for GHG emissions in Oslo, the «Climate Barometer».

The City Council wishes to ensure that climate measures do not contribute to social inequality. Thus, both climate and distributional effects must be assessed in all relevant decisions. At an overarching level, the Climate Agency has assessed the distributional effects of climate measures in transport and construction, as measures and instruments within these emission sectors can have the greatest impact on citizens and businesses.

The transport measures largely entail the redistribution of resources from those who have and use a car, to those who walk, cycle or travel by public transport. A third of the population of Oslo lives in a household which has no access to a car, and two in every three journeys are made on foot, by bicycle or on public transport. Investment in public transport, road toll payments and the use of space for pedestrian and cycling infrastructure instead of car parking contribute to the redistribution of resources from those who have access to a car to those who do not. Women tend to walk more than men, travel on public transport more and use a car less. People on low incomes tend to walk more and travel on public transport more. Overall, these groups will therefore benefit from this redistribution.

The measures that promote the use of electric cars also help to create a used car market for electric cars, ensuring that this does not become an opportunity exclusively reserved for those on higher incomes. The used car market for electric cars is growing rapidly and helping to ensure that low-income groups are increasingly able to buy electric cars.  Measures aimed at the business community, such as environmental requirements for taxi permits and measures relating to goods and service transport vehicles, will have different consequences for different stakeholders. The requirements may entail an economic risk during the transitional phase to zero-emission solutions, and could have different consequences for large and small enterprises. Subsidies are used strategically to reduce the costs associated with restructuring and increase innovation capacity.  See section 2.2 of the Appendix to the 2022 Climate Budget for more detailed information.

In autumn 2020, the Department for Urban Development in Oslo pursued a dialogue with the major industry players regarding requirements for fossil-free construction sites. During these meetings, it was stated that the industry can meet the requirement, but at an additional cost. Requirements regarding fossil-free construction sites mean that biofuel must be used, which is more expensive than fossil fuels. Biofuels cost between 50 and 100 % more than traditional fuels. In addition, there are administrative costs associated with obtaining access to biofuels. These costs impact equally on all players, but they can be more challenging to meet for smaller players. The municipality may therefore grant exemptions in individual cases in order to avoid imposing requirements that are either impossible or disproportionately demanding to meet, provided that the applicant can implement other measures which compensate for the lack of emission reductions.

As mentioned above, the emission inventory is very uncertain, and the Norwegian Environment Agency is working to improve the statistics. This could lead to significant changes in future publications. Measure calculations, which are often based on this emission inventory, also entail numerous assumptions concerning future developments, and will therefore always be subject to uncertainty. There is also uncertainty associated with the projections of GHG emissions.

The City Government’s approach to these challenges is to use the best available knowledge and be transparent regarding the data and methods that are used in the analyses. The City of Oslo’s Climate Agency is working closely with the Norwegian Environment Agency to improve the municipal statistics concerning GHG emissions.

The impacts of the various measures in the Climate Budget are calculated conservatively. More information on assessments of uncertainty can be found in the Appendix to the 2022 Climate Budget, section 2.3.

The Norwegian Environment Agency’s municipal emission inventory is used as a basis in the Climate Budget. The most recent figures in the emission inventory concern 2019. The inventory has been updated back to 2009 as regards the years for which figures are available. The Norwegian Environment Agency has not prepared an emission inventory for 2010, 2012 or 2014. Although the Norwegian Environment Agency’s emission inventory remains subject to considerable uncertainty, it is continually being improved.

The municipal emission inventory only partially reflects the impact of most of the measures in Oslo’s Climate Budget. This emission inventory should therefore not be used in isolation as a basis for the attainment of targets. This is also an important reason why the City of Oslo’s Climate Agency has prepared the «Climate Barometer», which monitors developments in a number of key parameters which provide information on developments in GHG emissions. As the impact of many of the municipality’s climate measures is not reflected in the Norwegian Environment Agency’s emission inventory, it is highly likely that the GHG emissions in Oslo indicated by the Norwegian Environment Agency’s emission inventory are overestimates.

The Norwegian Environment Agency is working to improve the figures before the emission inventory for 2020 is published, which is expected to take place around the turn of the year 2021/2022. Priority areas for improvement include calculating emissions from construction machinery and motorised equipment, as well as methodological improvements concerning emissions from road transport. The scope of these improvements is not known. The City of Oslo’s Climate Agency will continue its dialogue with the directorate in 2022 (see section 5.2 of the Appendix to the 2022 Climate Budget for more information). Adjustments resulting from a change of method will affect emissions throughout the time series, from 2009 through to the most recent emission year.

The emission inventory shows that GHG emissions in Oslo totalled around 1.27 million tonnes CO₂e in 2019. This represents a decrease of 6.7 % from 2018. The rise in emissions in 2017-18 was caused by an increase in emissions from diesel-powered motorised equipment and a reduction in the use of biofuels in road transport. During the period 2009 to 2019, GHG emissions reached a minimum in 2019, and emissions have declined by 16 % compared with the 2009 level (Figure 1). Emissions have been declining in almost all sectors since 2009.

All sectors, except for waste incineration, energy supply and shipping, saw reductions in emissions from 2018 to 2019. Emissions from road transport fell by 4.8 % from 2018 to 2019, equivalent to 30,000 tonnes CO₂e, as a result of an increase in the proportion of electric cars and the blending of biofuel in petrol and diesel.

Emissions from construction machinery (other mobile combustion) fell by 11 % and just under 31,000 tonnes CO₂e. However, the underlying data and the method used to calculate these emissions are uncertain. Emissions from heating declined by 48 %, equivalent to just over 36,000 tonnes CO₂e, as a result of a sharp decrease in the use of fossil heating sources. The decrease is the result of adaptation to the ban on oil-fired heating, which entered into force on 1 January 2020.

As Figure 2 shows, the largest sources of emissions are road transport (47 %), waste incineration and energy supply (23 %, mainly the incineration of fossil waste) and other mobile combustion, i.e. construction machinery and motorised equipment (20 %). The Norwegian Environment Agency’s publication of the emission inventory for 2019 again included emissions from landfill sites, which are now included under emissions from the waste and wastewater sector.

The fight against climate change is one of the City Government’s highest priorities. Oslo shall become a zero-emission city which is better to live in and has cleaner air, better public transport and safer routes to school. Oslo is a small city on a global scale, but by working closely with other cities, we can develop solutions which can quickly be adopted by others. The major transformation that will be necessary to become a zero-emission city has been continuing since the current City Government took office in 2015, and many major changes have taken place:

• Road transport in Oslo has declined in recent years, and the remaining road transport is rapidly becoming electrified. This is partly the result of higher parking fees, the removal of several thousand parking spaces, changes to the road toll scheme with more toll stations, two-way toll collection and greater environmentally differentiated rates. One in four vehicles passing the toll ring is now electric.
• By facilitating energy stations which offer charging/refuelling with renewable fuels such as biogas, hydrogen and rapid charging, the City of Oslo can drive the transition to zero emissions amongst the business community, as well as within our own operations. The production of biogas for fuel from food waste and wastewater sludge is part of the transition to a circular economy.
• By using climate criteria in spatial planning, the City of Oslo is laying the foundations for the long-term restructuring of the city, where future housing, transport solutions and businesses are based on low-emission solutions and reduced demand for transport.
• By setting strict climate requirements regarding the transport of goods and services, the City of Oslo is driving the development of zero-emission transport. Furthermore, Oslo’s own construction sites are fossil-free as a result of the imposition of procurement requirements. This means that the construction machinery that is used in Oslo’s construction projects is powered by biodiesel, biogas, electricity or hydrogen. We are also imposing such requirements on both private and public sector developers. By introducing climate requirements concerning the procurement of construction services and bringing electric wheel loaders and excavators etc. to the market, Oslo is helping to transform an entire industry, first across Norway and subsequently worldwide.
• Until the coronavirus pandemic, public transport’s share of motorised transport had been increasing every year, and more journeys in Oslo have been made by public transport than by car every year since 2016. This is the result of the City Government’s efforts to make public transport services more attractive and efficient. However, inhabitants are also cycling more and more, as a result of the greatly improved cycling facilities, including a much more extensive interlinked cycle path network.
• During the past year, electrification of the van fleet has also increased, with this fleet accounting for 35 % of new car sales in 2021 (as of July). This is a result of measures such as requirements concerning procurements, reserved parking for electric vans, exemption from road tolls, etc. Government support for the purchase of electric vans (Enova) has also been a contributory factor behind this.
• Public transport will be converted to zero-emission operation with the aim of achieving zero-emission ferry and bus operations in Oslo by the end of 2023. During the 2021-2022 winter season, the existing island ferries will be replaced by new electric ferries with greater passenger-carrying capacity. In 2022, a new bus contract began in Oslo South based on 95 % zero-emission operation. Today, all minibuses used by TT-transport in Oslo are powered by either biogas or electric (total of 64 minibuses). Other specialist vehicles (age-friendly transport) are currently powered by fossil diesel (16 buses).
• All international ferries arriving in Oslo now use electricity rather than diesel when docked. The installation of shore supply facilities is planned for container ships, tankers, bulk carriers, car carriers, etc. calling at Sydhavna.
• Fifteen per cent of taxis operated by Oslo Taxis and Norgestaxis (the largest taxi companies in Oslo) are zero-emission, and all taxis in Oslo must be zero-emission by 1 November 2024, as a result of requirements imposed by the municipality. The municipality is providing charging points specifically reserved for taxis, various pilot projects (e.g. wireless charging), and subsidies through the Climate and Energy Fund for home charging for taxi drivers.
• 87 % of the municipality’s own vehicle fleet is zero-emission or runs on sustainable renewable fuel. Few other municipalities or government agencies even come close to having such a high proportion.
• Oslo is working to develop a completely new and innovative approach to waste management involving carbon capture during waste incineration. This could be the start of a new industrial chapter, bring new green jobs to Oslo, and help solve a major environmental problem facing the world. There are 500 waste incineration plants across Europe alone to which the technology could be exported.
• The 2021 climate survey shows that there is broad support amongst the population for the city’s climate strategy and targets. 68 % of Oslo’s inhabitants support the overall target of a 95 % reduction in GHG emissions by 2030, and 57 % believe that the efforts being made to achieve the climate targets are making the city a better place to live in.

The business community in Oslo must adapt if Oslo is to achieve the climate targets, but it can also help to accelerate the transition to zero-emission solutions. In particular, Oslo’s business community can influence emissions by investing in zero-emission transport, developing solutions based on a circular economy, and establishing requirements for suppliers. The finance industry can contribute to the climate transformation through investment strategies based on sound climate risk assessments.

According to the 2021 climate survey, 82 % of businesses believe it is important for them to be seen as climate and environmentally friendly by their customers, an increase of eight percentage points over the previous year. This trend is also reflected in the proportion of businesses preparing an emission inventory, with the proportion preparing such an inventory rising from 12 % to 18 % in two years, according to the same survey.

A number of major companies have taken on the role of leader in the Green Shift and demanded stronger climate action from the national authorities through the Skift – Næringslivets klimaledere (Skift – Business Climate Leaders) climate network. The City of Oslo has a productive dialogue with pioneer businesses through its own Næring for klima (Business for climate) network, with 130 member businesses from across a wide range of sectors. In this network, specialists from member companies and the municipality discuss measures and solutions in four areas: Goods and service transport vehicles, construction and real property, waste and circular solutions and climate adaptation.

Leading players are also visible at the forefront of the cityscape in Oslo. Adjacent to the European route E18 at Filipstad, the Norwegian postal service (Posten) and DHL have established their own City Hubs next to DB Schenker’s hub which dates from 2019, and are now able to distribute goods from there using cargo bikes and electric vans. The transport industry is also starting to use trucks powered by electricity or biogas. As of July 2021, 7 % of new trucks in Oslo were electric. Alongside their low operating costs, climate requirements concerning the municipality’s procurements and the road toll payment system are a key reason why businesses are purchasing such vehicles.

Many businesses have also announced tighter climate requirements for procurements, and a small number are also demanding climate neutrality from their suppliers. However, the 2021 climate survey shows that the proportion of companies imposing climate requirements on their suppliers is not increasing overall, but has remained stable at 53 % for several years. An increase in the proportion of businesses imposing stricter climate requirements on their suppliers will be an important contribution from the business community to the attainment of Oslo’s climate targets through to 2030.

The transition to a more circular economy will help to reduce both direct emissions from waste incineration and indirect emissions in Oslo. An increase in demand for reused and recycled materials is a prerequisite. For example, in the business community, soft drinks producers such as Coca Cola and Ringnes have switched to manufacturing soft drinks bottles from recycled plastic. In the construction industry, the recycling of construction materials has increasingly come into focus. In 2021, Entra completed an office building at Kristian Augusts gate 13 made from 80 % recycled materials, reducing GHG emissions generated by material use by 70 %. Many start-up enterprises are demonstrating that transformation is possible through the adoption of green business models and circular solutions.

The transformation necessary to achieve Oslo’s climate targets is comprehensive. Despite many good climate measures and examples of future-oriented solutions and businesses amongst Oslo’s business community, the solutions still need to be disseminated on a large scale, and even more businesses must take the steps that are needed. The operators who have progressed furthest in re-aligning their strategy and taken the lead in introducing new solutions will be best equipped to retain access to markets and capital as climate regulations imposed by the EU, greater weighting of climate risk in the finance sector and stricter climate requirements for procurements are escalated over the coming years.

In January 2021, the Norwegian government presented the Climate plan for 2021-2030 (Report to the Storting No. 13 (2020-2021)). The two key points as far as Oslo is concerned are that provision is being made for a pilot project with zero-emission zones in two major Norwegian cities (Oslo and Bergen), and that the Norwegian government is intending to increase the carbon tax to NOK 2,000 per tonne in 2030. According to Norway’s report to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, carbon tax is the single instrument that has resulted in the largest national emission reductions since 1990. However, it is unclear what reductions the increase in the tax in 2030 will lead to, if the increase in the tax is compensated by reductions in other taxes. For example, if compensation is given in the form of a reduction in road use tax, the impact of the carbon tax will be eliminated as regards road transport. The Storting has also not adopted an escalation plan for carbon tax, so it is unclear when any increase will actually be introduced.

Proposals that could have a positive impact for Oslo include the development of integrated infrastructure for zero- and low-emission vehicles, the facilitation of support schemes for the establishment of essential infrastructure for realising technologies within passenger and freight transport, the scope to carry out pilot trials with zero-emission zones, and the introduction of carbon tax on waste incineration.

The Norwegian government has also introduced a scheme which means that biofuels which are used over and above the sales requirement will not have a climate impact.  When a customer buys 100 % biofuel, the seller will then be able to sell correspondingly more fossil fuels to another customer, so that the climate impact is offset on a litre-for-litre basis. Oslo will continue to work towards a national, government agency-run system which will ensure a climate impact from biofuels which are used over and above the minimum level in the sales requirement. If such a system is not put in place, the City Government will be forced to consider moving away from requirements concerning biofuels in procurements. If this becomes a reality, the City Government’s target for emission reductions in 2023 will become even more challenging to achieve.

In June 2021, the Storting adopted a new National Transport Plan 2022-2033 (NTP). In a densely populated metropolitan area like Oslo, a high-capacity, efficient public transport network is essential in order for the population to get about and thrive in their everyday lives. The key measures for Oslo are the Fornebu Line, a new signalling system for Oslo Metro, a new city centre tunnel, and a new high-capacity station at Majorstua. Through the urban growth agreement, the central government has committed to co-financing the Fornebu Line and a new city centre tunnel for Oslo Metro.  In the 2022-2025 action programme for the urban growth partnership and Oslo Package 3, funding was allocated for the planning of Majorstua Station, but not the actual construction. In the NTP, NOK 500 million has been set aside for a new Majorstuen station during the first period. The key public transport projects for Oslo are underfunded. In order to achieve the various targets regarding the climate and traffic reductions, it will be necessary to prioritise investments and the operation of public transport, and to deprioritise investments in roads which generate traffic growth. Parallel to this, it will also be necessary to work to ensure that revenues from the road toll ring and central government funding for major public transport projects both increase.

Global climate and environmental targets require efforts to be made at local, national and international level. Cities are pivotal to the climate transformation that will be necessary if the world is to achieve the goals agreed in the Paris Agreement.

By participating in international climate networks for cities, Oslo is contributing to the sharing of experiences and the exporting of climate solutions.  By participating as an innovator city in the C40 network, through Eurocities, Carbon neutral Cities Alliance (CNCA) and Local Governments for Sustainability (ICLEI), Oslo is helping to grow markets for new climate solutions and drive better national and international framework conditions for the implementation of climate initiatives.

Given that Norway has an agreement to implement the climate target for 2030 in cooperation with the EU, the EU’s climate policy becomes even more important as a framework than was previously the case. Oslo is therefore actively working to influence the EU’s major climate package «Fit for 55», which was presented in July 2021, both through Eurocities and through input to the Norwegian government.

Oslo’s experiences and results are in great demand internationally. In autumn 2020, an Oslo office was established under the C40 climate network to further develop climate solutions in areas where Oslo is a leading player. The key focus areas for the office are zero-emission buildings and construction sites, climate leadership and climate budgets.

Oslo shall become a city virtually free from GHG emissions and a city that is better equipped to cope with climate change. In 2030, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Oslo shall be reduced by 95 % compared with 2009. In proposition 109/20 Climate Strategy towards 2030, Oslo City Council adopted five main targets for its climate work. The Climate Strategy also includes a description of how these targets will be achieved. The five targets are presented in the box below. Sections 2.5-2.7 of this Climate Budget consider measures to reduce emissions within Oslo’s boundaries (target no. 1 in the strategy). The climate work to achieve the remaining targets is discussed in section 2.8.

The five targets of Oslo’s Climate Strategy towards 2030:

1. Oslo’s greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 shall be reduced by 95 % compared with 2009, and by 52 % in 2023
2. Oslo’s natural environment shall be managed in such a way that natural carbon storage in vegetation and soil is protected and the greenhouse gas removal in forests and other vegetation increase by 2030
3. Oslo’s total energy consumption in 2030 shall be reduced by 10 % compared with 2009
4. Oslo’s capacity to withstand climate change shall be strengthened towards 2030, and the city will be developed so that it is prepared for the changes projected by 2100
5. Oslo’s contribution to greenhouse gas emissions generated outside the municipality shall be substantially lower in 2030 than in 2020

If Oslo achieves its climate targets, the city will make a significant contribution to Norway’s climate commitments. This will become even more important given the EU’s decision to raise its ambition level to an emission reduction of 55 % by 2030. Because Norway has an agreement to implement the climate target in partnership with the EU, the country’s target for emission reductions outside the ETS must also be raised. This essentially means that the climate plan presented by the Norwegian government this winter will not be sufficiently ambitious – stronger measures will be needed. Oslo and other major cities must deliver on this.

However, Oslo is also dependent on strengthened regional and central government instruments to achieve its climate targets. The most recent available emission inventory for Oslo dates from 2019, and shows a reduction of 16 % during the period from 2009 to 2019. However, there is reason to believe that the emission reductions have been greater than the figures suggest, as the Norwegian Environment Agency’s emission inventory only partially reflects the impacts of most of the measures in Oslo’s Climate Budget (see Chapter 2.4).

Main target 1 in the box above includes a secondary target for Oslo’s GHG emissions in 2023 to be reduced by 52 % compared with 2009. The target for 2023 is challenging, but the City Government is working purposefully to implement more measures or raise the level of ambition for existing measures, in order to bring us closer to achieving the target. With regard to this, the City Government notes that the Norwegian Environment Agency’s emission inventory should not be used in isolation as a way of assessing the attainment of targets, as the impacts of many climate measures are not reflected in the figures. As a result, it is very likely that the GHG emissions in Oslo indicated by the Norwegian Environment Agency’s emission inventory are overestimates. Measures which are implemented could also have a greater or earlier impact than expected.

In 2019, road transport, waste incineration and construction accounted for almost 90 % of all GHG emissions within Oslo’s boundaries. The remaining emissions primarily originate from shipping, abandoned landfill sites and the heating of buildings. In this Climate Budget, the City Government has therefore prioritised tightening the instruments aimed at reducing the three largest sources of emissions. The City Government’s initiatives in this year’s Climate Budget are presented below.

Public transport heading out of the pandemic

Through long-term and targeted initiatives, public transport has been developed over a period of many years into a genuine competitor to the car. The decline in the number of journeys being made by public transport during the coronavirus pandemic has resulted in an extraordinary situation for public transport and its associated funding. New travel patterns need to be established in the wake of the pandemic. The City Government is aiming to reduce car travel and encourage more people to travel by public transport. This involves efficient and attractive public transport services. Walking and cycling have become increasingly popular during the pandemic. The goal going forward is to maintain or increase the number of people walking and cycling, while at the same time ensuring that public transport at least wins back the market share lost during lockdown. Overall, the proportion of climate-friendly travel shall increase. For 2022, the City Government is proposing an appropriation of NOK 135 million with the aim of maintaining the overall level of public transport provision in the face of reduced ticket revenue. Furthermore, the City Government is proposing an annual increase of NOK 50 million to ensure zero-emission ferry and bus operations in Oslo by the end of 2023.

For 2024 and 2025, the City Government is proposing an annual increase of NOK 25 million for improvements to public transport.  An annual appropriation of NOK 4 million is also proposed for study and analysis capacity to boost the systematic work being carried out to reduce traffic and improve the accessibility of public transport. A number of major bus contracts will commence in Oslo in 2022 and 2023, and under the City Government’s budget proposal, it will be possible for Ruter’s operations (the dominant bus company in Oslo) to be zero-emission by the end of 2023, bringing forward the goal of zero-emission public transport by 2028.

Oslo set to become a pilot city for zero-emission heavy vehicles

By 2025, the “Pilot city for zero-emission heavy transport vehicles» initiative will cut emissions from heavy vehicles by more than 17,000 tonnes CO₂e per year. In addition, climate requirements regarding the transport of bulk materials will contribute emission reductions of approximately 2,000 tonnes CO₂e annually. In order to achieve this, the City of Oslo has developed a coordinated package of instruments for heavy vehicles, which aim to accelerate the transition from diesel to electricity, hydrogen or biogas. Key instruments are environmentally differentiated rates in the road toll payment system, climate requirements in procurements, cooperation with the business community, charging infrastructure and energy stations, in addition to a subsidy scheme for charging infrastructure. The municipality will also investigate further whether zero-emission trucks should be given access to public transport lanes on national and municipal roads. In order to rapidly meet growing demand for charging infrastructure for heavy vehicles and contribute to the establishment of a market at an early stage, the City Government is proposing an appropriation of NOK 10 million in 2022 for the establishment of charging points, totalling NOK 36 million during the economic plan period. The City Government is also proposing to set aside NOK 30.8 million from 2022 to 2025 for zero-emission construction machinery and vehicles for the Agency for Cemeteries and Burials. In addition, the City Government will set aside NOK 50 million in 2022 to cover additional costs for zero-emission heavy vehicles and machinery. In order to achieve the goal for all of the municipality’s heavy vehicles and machinery to be zero-emission by 2025, all relevant entities must draw up specific plans for the replacement of vehicles and machinery.

Development of zero-emission zones

A zero-emission zone is an area that is reserved exclusively for vehicles powered by electricity, hydrogen or biogas. The City of Oslo is investigating how a zone can be established and gradually expanded. The municipality will apply to the central government to establish a pilot project for zero-emission zones, as facilitated through the Norwegian government’s Climate plan for 2021-2030 (Report to the Storting No. 13 (2021-2030)). The City Government is allocating NOK 4 million in 2022 and NOK 10 million in 2023-2025 for essential investments in the establishment of a zero-emission zone.

Norconsult has estimated that a zero-emission zone limited to Oslo city centre (the car-free “city life area” outside Grønland and Tøyen) could result in emission reductions in 2023 of 8,000 tonnes CO2 in Oslo alone, and 27,000 CO2 tonnes including the impact outside Oslo’s boundaries. With a zone within Ring 2, emissions can be reduced by an estimated 31,000 tonnes in Oslo alone, and 76,000 tonnes including the impact outside Oslo’s boundaries. Zero-emission zones can thus become a powerful instrument which could bring about reductions equivalent to one third of the estimated carbon capture effect of the Klemetsrud facility.  The study of zero-emission zones will continue in 2022, with the aim of entry into force during the term of the current city government. Zero-emission zones in Oslo are also a priority area in the EU’s MOVE21 innovation project. Oslo is leading MOVE21, and approximately NOK 30 million of the funding from the EU has been granted to participants from the Oslo region.

More and better charging infrastructure to be built

The widespread provision of charging infrastructure for all vehicle groups is an essential prerequisite for electrification of the transport sector. Although charging is essential for electrification, it is not possible to estimate the impact of measures relating to charging infrastructure in isolation. The City Government is proposing the appropriation of NOK 15 million in 2022, NOK 61.5 million annually during the period 2023-2024 and NOK 30.5 million in 2025 for charging infrastructure for cars, taxis, vans, trucks and buses (excluding Ruter). A total of NOK 168.5 million of new funding will be allocated for charging infrastructure during the economic plan period. This is in addition to the existing funding for charging infrastructure for 2022 of NOK 35.5 million. The establishment of charging infrastructure is a prerequisite for the introduction of other measures such as zero-emission zones and climate requirements concerning the taxi industry and procurements. In addition, NOK 2 million is being set aside annually for 2024 (a total of NOK 6 million) for the rental of containerised charging solutions for the ultra-fast charging of electric trucks and dumper trucks. See the section on building and construction for additional appropriations for containerised charging solutions.

Parking measures to reduce road traffic and GHG emissions

Parking measures are a crucial and effective means of limiting road transport, and thereby reducing GHG emissions. This view is supported by urban studies conducted by the Norwegian Public Roads Administration covering all major urban areas in Norway from 2018. It is almost impossible to calculate the precise climate impact of parking measures in isolation, as this instrument interacts with many other instruments in the transport sector.

The municipality’s parking regulations, which are intended to stimulate reductions in road transport and the transition to zero-emission vehicles, remain in place. Parking charges in the yellow zone, including non-resident parking in residential zones, will rise by 25 % in 2022, in line with previous resolutions. The increase in charges will apply to both fossil fuel cars and electric cars. New parking regulations, which set out rules concerning the number and design of parking spaces for cars and bicycles linked to residential and commercial buildings, will be presented for political consideration during the first half of 2022. The municipality is also trialling a scheme for car-sharing in public car parking spaces. The aim of this trial scheme is to facilitate the greater use of car-sharing, reduce overall car use in Oslo, and reduce public road space used for parking. The trial scheme will be evaluated after 2022.

Strengthening the efforts relating to climate-friendly travel to/from work in municipal entities

Access to (free) parking at the workplace is a key factor in people opting to drive to work. The City Government is proposing to set aside NOK 10 million to continue the support scheme under which municipal entities can apply for funding to enable their employees to travel in a more climate-friendly way when travelling on business and to and from work. The City Government will also ask all municipal entities to present a plan to enable their employees to commute to and from work in a more climate-friendly way. In addition, the entities shall present a plan which explains how business travel will take place using climate-friendly forms of transport. The entities will be asked to consider whether parking spaces can be removed completely and/or whether charging facilities can be provided where they are not already available. The City Government will continue to encourage private and public sector employers to introduce fees for the use of employee parking spaces.

Road tolls for fossil fuel cars to be increased

A supplementary agreement to the urban growth agreement has been signed which includes lower road tolls for zero-emission vehicles. This will contribute to emission reductions during the economic plan period. Oslo Package 3 will be renegotiated during 2022. Oslo will then strive to secure further cuts in emissions through increases in road tolls and time-based pricing, combined with an increase in the price differential between fossil fuel vehicles and zero-emission vehicles. For example, an increase in the price differential between fossil fuel and electric vehicles of NOK 20 through to 2025 could reduce emissions by around 22,000 tonnes CO₂ in 2025, compared with the scenario where no new measures are introduced.

Exemptions/discounts for biogas-powered heavy vehicles inside the road toll ring, which was adopted by the steering group for Oslo Package 3 two years ago, could also become an important climate measure in 2022. The City Government will work to ensure that the exemption enters into force in Oslo in January 2022, but this will require certain clarifications from the Norwegian Public Roads Administration. In May 2021, the Storting decided to ask «the Government to ensure the equal treatment of biogas vehicles and zero-emission vehicles on routes funded via road tolls with effect from 1 January 2022».

Imposition of climate requirements

In the 2021 Climate Budget, the City Government decided to introduce requirements for fossil-free construction sites in new zoning plans.  This instrument will significantly reduce emissions from construction sites over the next few years, by up to an estimated 100,000 tonnes CO₂e in 2025. This estimate is uncertain, as the figures provided by the Norwegian Environment Agency are of poor quality. The City Government is also keen to ensure that municipal construction sites are fossile-free and will set aside NOK 6 million in 2022 for the establishment of sufficient electrical capacity at construction sites at Oslobygg (battery containers) and Boligbygg (power supply for charging), as well as NOK 2.5 million annually for two positions which will be responsible for developing and following up environmental and climate requirements in procurements.  The City Council is also proposing to set aside NOK 44.4 million annually in the economic plan to cover additional costs relating to the Agency for Urban Environment’s road operation contracts, partly as a result of climate and environmental requirements. Environmental and climate requirements in public procurements are one of the municipality’s key instruments in the promotion of climate-friendly solutions in all sectors. In 2022, the City Government will tighten the requirements concerning the municipality’s new joint procurement agreements and require zero emissions from the transport of goods and services.

Fossil-free transport and handling of bulk materials

Since 2020, the City of Oslo has required the fossil-free transport of bulk materials to and from construction sites in its own projects. All projects involving the transporting of bulk materials where the municipality is the buyer are expected to become fossil-free during the economic plan period.

The City Government will continue to strive to make the handling of bulk materials more climate-friendly. This includes a set of criteria for assessing the climate impacts of all planning and building cases. The Agency for Planning and Building Services has received funding from the Klimasats grant scheme for a two-year project with a bulk materials coordinator to ensure the climate-friendly handling of bulk materials throughout the planning process.

Emissions from construction materials

Emissions from the production and handling of construction materials are amongst the largest emission sources to which the City of Oslo’s own entities contribute outside the municipality’s boundaries. The City Government is working to set an ambitious target to reduce GHG emissions from material use by its own entities. Funding has been awarded by the Klimasats grant scheme for the realisation of a digital tool for life-cycle calculations.

Establish carbon capture and storage at Klemetsrud

The City Government will continue to work to achieve carbon capture and storage (CCS) at the Klemetsrud waste-to-energy facility. This will be crucial in achieving Oslo’s climate targets. In Report to the Storting 33 (2019-2020) Longship – Carbon capture and storage, the Government proposed the awarding of NOK 3 billion to Fortum Oslo Varme’s carbon capture project, subject to the condition that Fortum Oslo Varme AS obtains sufficient self-funding and funding from the EU or other sources. Fortum Oslo Varme As has applied for funding from the EU’s Innovation Fund. The project is currently in the second round of the application process. A final response is anticipated during the last quarter of 2021. Subject to these assumptions and in light of the application process for the EU’s Innovation Fund, the project may not become operational until 2026 at the earliest.

Household waste in Oslo is incinerated at Haraldrud. The municipality is currently investigating the possibility of incinerating household waste with carbon capture. This includes entering into a dialogue with Oslo Fortum Varme AS and other potential suppliers of carbon capture incineration services. Assuming that the dialogue with the market is productive, or that it is decided that the municipality will continue to process household waste inhouse with carbon capture, this will eliminate the second largest point emission source in the municipality. In addition, it will be important in 2022 to clarify the instruments that will be required to achieve the target plastic recycling rate of 65 % by 2030. This will be determined on the basis of an ongoing investigation. Ensuring that more waste plastic is sorted upon disposal will be an important step in achieving the climate targets.

Climate considerations in the land-use section of the municipal master plan

Oslo is revising its land-use section for the municipal master plan, with the aim of ensuring that this section can be adopted in 2023. The key instrument in the land-use section for contributing to the 2030 target lies in the coordination of land use and transport. To ensure that the land-use section actually underpins the 2030 target, the climate impacts of the plan must be analysed. In particular, the analysis will address the consequences of the overarching measures in the land-use section as regards GHG emissions from road transport and land-use reallocation.

Further development of climate criteria in the processing of planning and building matters

In order to highlight and assess how the consideration of planning and building cases contributes to attainment of the climate targets, the Agency for Planning and Building Services has developed climate criteria for use in case processing. In cooperation with Bergen, Oslo is now working to further develop the climate criteria in order to also assess GHG emissions which occur outside the municipality’s boundaries when considering planning and building cases. The methodology can be used in projects in both the private and public sectors.

The Climate and Energy Fund

Through subsidies for climate and energy measures, the City Government is facilitating the implementation of measures by residents and businesses in Oslo to reduce GHG emissions and improve energy efficiency.  The City Government is proposing to continue the commitment of NOK 120 million. Relevant subsidy schemes in 2022 that can help to cut GHG emissions include:

Road transport:

• Subsidies for charging facilities at housing cooperatives and jointly owned properties
• Subsidies for charging facilities for electric vans for companies
• Subsidies for rapid chargers for vans
• Subsidies for charging stations for electric taxis
• Subsidies to purchase electric cargo bikes for companies
• Subsidies for climate-smart travel to/from work
• Subsidies to provide secure bike parking for housing cooperatives and jointly owned properties
• Subsidies for the charging of heavy vehicles
• Subsidies for depot charging facilities for buses (excluding Ruter’s buses)

Building and construction:

• Subsidies for mapping how a construction site can become a zero-emissions site
• Subsidies for electric motorised equipment

Energy improvements:

• Subsidies for the installation of solar panels in housing cooperatives, jointly owned properties and commercial buildings
• Subsidies for insulation and the replacement of windows and doors in housing cooperatives and jointly owned properties
• Subsidies for energy improvements in private housing

All sectors:

• Subsidies for pilot and development projects for climate cuts and energy savings

Hovedformålet med dette oppdraget har vært å levere kunnskap om muligheter for restaurering og reintroduksjon av ålegrasenger i Oslofjorden innenfor Oslo kommunes grenser, og ålegrasengers potensiale for klimatilpasning, karbonopptak og lagring. Spesifikt ønsket Klimaetaten:

1. En utredning av kunnskapsgrunnlaget og kartlegging av muligheter for restaurering eller reintroduksjon av ålegrasenger, og hvordan det vil påvirke karbonopptak og klimatilpasning i Oslofjorden
2. En praktisk veileder om reintroduksjon og restaurering av ålegras
3. Et oppdatert kartgrunnlag av ålegras i Oslo med forslag til lokaliteter for tiltak

I denne rapporten presenteres kunnskapen innhentet i forbindelse med punkt 1, mens den praktiske veilederen (punkt 2) er tilgjengelig i et eget dokument (Infantes et al. 2022). Det oppdaterte kartgrunnlaget og forslag til lokaliteter for restaurering og potensielle donor-enger er presentert i
denne rapporten (kap. 5.1).

Ålegrasenger er en marin naturtype som finnes i grunne bløtbunnsområder i tempererte områder. Det er ingen kjente forekomster av ålegras innenfor Oslo kommunes grenser i dag, men det er flere relativt store ålegrasenger i Bærum og Asker.
Totalarealet for ålegrasenger i Indre Oslofjord er beregnet til ca. 900 000 m².

Friske ålegrasenger fungerer som en naturbasert løsning for klimatilpasning som gjør kystområdene mer robuste i møte med klimaendringene. For eksempel bidrar ålegrasenger til å

• opprettholde og beskytte et rikt biologisk mangfold som øker
  økosystemenes motstandsdyktighet mot effekter av
  klimaendringene
• beskytte mot konsekvensene av
  økt ekstremvær ved å binde sedimentene
• produsere oksygen som bufrer mot havforsuring

I tillegg bidrar ålegrasenger til å fjerne klimagasser fra atmosfæren. Ålegrasenger tar opp og lagrer karbon både gjennom høy lokal primærproduksjon og sen nedbrytning i sedimentene, og ved at de «fanger» partikler fra omkringliggende områder som blir lagret i sedimentene. Sedimentene er derfor det viktigste karbonlageret i ålegrasenger. Basert på studier fra andre nordiske land kan vi anta at ålegrasengene i Oslofjorden lagrer ca. 79 g karbon m-2 i plantene, 2600-4800 g karbon m-2 i
sedimentene og tar opp og langtidslagrer (sekvestrerer) 51 g karbon m-2 per år. For ålegrasengene i Indre Oslofjord tilsvarer det en lagring av ca. 71 tonn karbon i ålegraset, 2340-4370 tonn karbon i sedimentene og et årlig opptak på ca. 46 tonn karbon.

Det har vært en reduksjon i utbredelsen og tilstanden til ålegrasenger i Indre Oslofjord de siste årene, sannsynligvis på grunn av økt havtemperatur, overgjødsling, overfiske, formørking, og utbygging i strandsonen. Bevaring og bærekraftig forvaltning av eksisterende ålegrasenger er derfor nødvendig for å opprettholde de økologiske funksjonene knyttet til denne naturtypen. I tillegg kan transplantering av ålegras fra nærliggende enger brukes som tiltak for å introdusere ålegras til nye områder eller restaurere der ålegraset har blitt borte. Det har vært gjort en rekke restaureringsforsøk med ålegras globalt, men kun noen få små-skala forsøk i Norge.

For at restaureringen skal være vellykket er det viktig å forstå årsakene til at ålegraset har blitt borte og å motvirke de negative pressene på ålegraset. Generelt er lokale miljøforhold viktigere enn den spesifikke restaurerings-metoden som blir brukt. De mest effektive tiltakene for å sikre robuste ålegrasenger i møte med framtidige klimaendringer er sannsynligvis å redusere næringstilførselen og fiske-trykket. Om det er vellykket, vil restaurering av ålegrasenger kunne ha stor verdi, både som klimatilpasning og for å øke kystområdenes opptak og lagring av CO2.