1 Projection of emissions and calculation of the impact of measures

1.1     Projection of emissions to 2030

The City of Oslo’s Climate Budget is based on the Norwegian Environment Agency’s emission inventory at municipal level (Norwegian Environment Agency, 2021a), which covers the years 2009-2019. A brief description of developments in GHG emissions in Oslo is included in Proposition 1/2022, Chapter 2.3.

Impact calculations for measures in the Climate Budget are based on a projection of the City of Oslo’s emissions through to 2030 (CICERO, 2019). This projection is often referred to as a ‘baseline trajectory’ and represents an estimate of how emissions might develop in the absence of new measures. The projection is based on the best available information concerning the factors that will impact on GHG emissions through to 2030, including population growth, technological advances and economic development.

The coronavirus pandemic has so far had major consequences for Oslo in both 2020 and 2021. The pandemic resulted in an economic downturn, and may have impacted on factors such as population growth in Oslo and technological advances. The long-term effects are hard to predict. Infection control measures to combat coronavirus have resulted in changes in travel habits and commercial activity, amongst other things. Overall, this could impact on the level of GHG emissions in both the short and the longer term. The knowledge base that will be needed to correct for this uncertainty in the projection or the climate budget analysis is still inadequate.

The projection includes the emission-reducing impact of approved central government, regional and municipal policies as of May 2018.  The impact of municipal climate measures adopted thereafter is not included. Developments in emissions in the projection assume that adopted policies are implemented as planned, and trigger effective measures without any delays. The following measures and instruments are included in the projection:

• Road toll payment system: Revised agreement concerning Oslo Package 3 for 2017-2036 of 5 June 2016 and the supplementary agreement of 13 June 2017
• National ban on the oil-fired heating of buildings from 1 January 2020
• National sales requirement for biofuel for road transport use (it was decided to maintain the proportion of biofuel at a constant 2019 level (16 percent in real volume terms) during the period 2020-2030)
• Extraction of landfill gas

The projection is recalculated in the event of updates to the municipal emission inventory and has been updated with historical emissions for the years from 2009 to 2017 (Norwegian Environment Agency, 2021a). Compared with the baseline year 2009, the projection shows estimated decreases in GHG emissions of 22 % in 2020, 27 % in 2025 and 33 % in 2030. Historical emissions and the projection of emissions in the absence of new measures after 2017 through to 2030 are shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1: Development in historical emissions during the period 2009-2017 and emission projections for the period 2018-2030, assuming no additional measures from 2018

With regard to road transport, emissions from cars are expected to decline sharply through to 2030. This is partly due to the transition from fossil fuel cars to electric cars, an increase in the use of biofuels and a reduction in the number of kilometres driven per person. Implementation of the revised agreement concerning Oslo Package 3 (the road toll payment system) will be crucial for realising this emission reduction. Although emissions from road transport are expected to decline overall, it is estimated that emissions from heavy vehicles will increase through to 2030 if no new measures are implemented.

The ban on oil-fired heating from 2020 is expected to result in a decrease in emissions from heating. Decreases in emissions from landfill sites, biological waste, wastewater and industry are also projected, but these emission sources do not have a major impact on overall emissions.

In the other emission sectors, a slightly rising trend in emissions is projected through to 2030 as a result of both population growth and economic growth. This particularly applies to waste incineration and energy supply. The emissions sector accounted for around 21 % of emissions in 2017, but its share of Oslo’s GHG emissions will increase to around 29 % in 2030. In the “other mobile combustion” emissions sector, emissions from diesel-powered motorised equipment (including construction machinery) in the construction sector are dominant. It is estimated that these emissions could increase by around 12 % by 2030 compared with 2017. This assumes that the growth is proportional to the population of Oslo.

Road transport is still projected to be the largest emission sector in 2030, but waste incineration and energy supply and other mobile combustion (e.g. construction machinery) are well on their way to taking over the position of dominant emission sectors.

1.2     Calculation of the impact of measures in the Climate Budget

There must be transparency regarding assumptions and the methods used in assessments of the emission-reducing impact of measures in the Climate Budget. All assessments must be verifiable. A description is given below of the methods used to estimate the impacts of the measures described in Table 2.2a of Proposition 1/2022, Chapter 2. For further information on methodology, see Chapter 5 later in this document.

Measure 1. Phasing out of oil-fired heating of buildings

The emission-reducing impact of the measure is included in the projection. The measure is the main reason why emissions from heating have declined sharply in recent years, and the projection assumes that emissions from fossil fuels will drop to zero in 2020 as a result of the ban on oil-fired heating from 1 January 2020. However, the Norwegian Environment Agency’s emissions inventory indicates that emissions from heating using fossil gas are higher than expected, and that the assumption that fossil fuel emissions will drop to zero in 2020 remains unlikely to be fulfilled. The projection has therefore been updated with an increase of around 24,000 tonnes CO₂e through to 2030, which corrects for the overestimated impact in the projection.  Although it is possible to apply for an exemption/dispensation from the ban, only one dispensation is valid as of May 2021. It has therefore been assumed that emissions from fossil oil for heating purposes will be zero from 2022 onwards.

Measure 2. Phasing out of fossil oil and gas in district heating (peak load)

The impact of the measure is estimated at 2,700 tonnes CO₂e in 2022 and 2,600 tonnes in 2025. The calculation for the measure is based on activity data from Fortum Oslo Varme AS (Fortum Oslo Varme AS, 2020 and 2021) for the years from 2015 to 2020 and the first quarter of 2021, along with activity data from Avantor and Nydalen Energi AS (Avantor, 2020; Nydalen Energi AS, 2021) for the years from 2015 to 2020. Estimates for methane and nitrous oxide emissions from biofuels have also been added to the calculation, based on the indicator for the proportions of methane and nitrous oxide in emissions from district heating from the Norwegian Environment Agency (2021a).

The impact of the measures shows the difference between the projection and the estimated residual emissions following the measure. The projection already includes an expectation that emission levels will be reduced through to 2030. This means that the impact of the measures will be reduced correspondingly over the period, even though the residual emissions after the measure are assumed to be constant. The impact of the measure for 2022 is therefore greater than that for 2025.

From 2022, it is assumed that residual fossil emissions from peak loads will be fixed at around 800 tonnes and 70 tonnes CO₂e annually from Fortum Oslo Varme AS and Nydalen Energi AS respectively. This is due to the fact that some fossil gas will be used for pressure relief of the system and test operation. The fossil share may increase, e.g. in the event of the poor availability of biofuel. The impact of the measure is uncertain, as the calculation was based on Fortum Oslo Varme AS’ objective.

Measure 3. Extraction of landfill gas

The emission-reducing impact of the measure is reflected in the municipal emissions inventory and is included in the projection. In the 2022 Climate Budget, the measure has been moved from Table 2.2b to Table 2.2a due to methodological improvements in the calculation which ensure that the impact of the measure is reflected in the emissions inventory and is therefore included in the projection. The measure concerns the landfill sites at Stubberud, Rommen and Grønmo.

Measure 4. National sales requirement of 24.5 % biofuel

The emission-reducing impact of the measure is included in the projection. However, biofuel sales fell by 2 percentage points in 2020 (Norwegian Environment Agency, 2021d), partly as a result of tax changes. This meant that biofuel sales were lower than assumed in the projection for 2020. The projection has been corrected accordingly. A further increase in the sales requirement could result in the measure having an additional impact in future climate budgets.

Measure 5. Road toll payment system

The emission-reducing impact of the measure is included in the projection. The impact of the measure is mainly due to the phasing in of electric cars. As of the first half of 2021, developments in the proportion of electricity are somewhat higher than assumed in the projection. The projection shows an estimated decline in emissions from road transport of 9 % from 2022 to 2025. Much of this decrease can be attributed to the impact of the road toll payment system, but other policies relating to road transport, such as central government and local electric car benefits, also play a role.

Measure 6. Zero emissions/sustainable biofuels in the municipality’s vehicle fleet

The impact of the measure is estimated at 1,700 tonnes CO₂e in both 2022 and 2025. The impact of the measure was calculated using data from the Agency for Improvement and Development concerning the municipal vehicle fleet, along with actual data concerning the average distances travelled by the City of Oslo’s vehicles (Development and Competence Agency, 2021). Emissions for 2018, 2019 and 2020 are used as a basis in the calculation of the impact of the measure, and as a baseline, it is assumed that the vehicle fleet and distance travel will remain constant at the 2018 level. It is assumed that emissions will be reduced by 50 % in 2021 compared with 2020, and that emissions will be close to zero in 2022. In order to achieve the estimated impact of the measure, it will be important that the goal of a complete transition to zero emissions or sustainable biofuels is followed up within relevant municipal enterprises.

Measure 7. Better cycling facilities

The impact of the measure is estimated to be 2,200 tonnes CO₂e in 2022 and 2,900 tonnes CO₂e by the end of 2025. The emission-reducing impact of the measure is calculated as a result of cycling replacing car travel. The impact is calculated based on a reduction in the number of kilometres travelled by car, corrected for the proportion of electric cars. The rate of phasing in is based on population figures and the current shares of bicycle and electric car use through to 2025 from the projection. The median travel distance for journeys made by bicycle is estimated to be 3 km (IRIS, 2017). The proportion of new bicycle journeys transferred from car journeys is set to an average of a lower and an upper estimate of 11 % and 34 %. The prerequisite for the lower estimate is based on 11 % of those cycling in Oslo today citing the car as their alternative means of transport (Urbanet Analyse, 2015). The upper estimate is based on the assumption that the transfer is proportional to the distribution of transport means.

The Agency for Urban Environment (2021a) has assessed realistic bike shares through to 2025 using data from the city’s bicycle counters and the national travel habits survey (Norwegian Public Roads Administration, 2020; Urbanet Analyse, 2021). A one percentage point increase has been incorporated from 2022 to 2025.

Measure 8. Legislation for taxis: zero emissions by 2025

The impact of the measure is estimated to be 4,400 tonnes CO₂e in 2022 and 15,300 tonnes CO₂e in 2025. The impact of the measure was estimated on the basis of figures from Statistics Norway (2021c) concerning annual distance travelled and an estimated growth in traffic in line with the projection, i.e. +0.81 % annually[1]. It is assumed that the proportion of zero-emission taxis without this measure (the zero alternative) will develop more slowly than the development in electric in the projection for the City of Oslo’s emissions through to 2030. This is because taxis are used more continuously and have different charging requirements than ordinary cars. Actual data for the renewable share in the vehicle fleet in 2018, 2019 and 2020 was taken from the taxi centres (Agency for Urban Environment, 2021b). It has not been possible to obtain complete data for 2021 due to new national regulations. The assumptions regarding the phasing-in rate are based on best judgement, with gradual phasing-in of 30 % in 2022, 60 % in 2023, 80 % in 2024 and 100 % from 1 January 2025.

The impact of the measure assumes that the environmental requirement is enforced. Under the professional transport regulations, it is the police and the Norwegian Public Roads Administration that are the control authority. The greatest uncertainties in the calculation are linked to the number of taxis, the distance they travel, the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the industry, and the rate at which zero-emission taxis are phased in.

Measure 9. Zero-emission goods and service transport vehicles

The impact of the measure is estimated to be 1,200 tonnes CO₂e in 2022 and 6,100 tonnes CO₂e in 2025. Much of the impact of the electrification of vans is already included in the projection, and this measure is based on further increases in the proportion of electric vans. The impact of the measure was calculated based on estimated sales figures for electric vans in Oslo. The reason why the impact of the measure in the 2022 budget was lower compared with the 2021 budget is that, although the market share for electric vans in 2020 and 2021 was high, the rate of phasing-in was overestimated in the 2021 budget.

It is assumed that everyone who switches to an electric van will use Enova’s support scheme, and this is therefore used as an indicator of developments in the sales figures for electric vans. The analysis indicates that 27 % of vans operating in Oslo in 2025 could be electric, 5 percentage points above that assumed in the projection. An important prerequisite for achieving the impact of the measure is that the instruments for the measure (presented in Table 2.2a of Proposition 1/2022) are implemented in full. If instruments are not fully implemented, the development will be approximately the same as the share of electric vans in the projection for Oslo. The provision of sufficient charging facilities for vans is considered to be particularly important for continuing the development.

Measure 10. Zero-emission buses in public transport

Measure 11. Zero emissions/sustainable biofuel in the transport of bulk materials and waste from construction sites on behalf of the City of Oslo

The impact of the measure is estimated to be 2,000 tonnes CO₂e annually during the term of the economic plan. The calculation is based on the assumption that total emissions from trucks carrying bulk materials in the City of Oslo according to the Institute of Transport Economics (2019) amount to around 10,000 tonnes CO_2e and that the City of Oslo accounts for around one fifth of the turnover (Entreprenørforeningen for bygg og anlegg, 2019) in the construction market. The impact assumes that all heavy vehicles used for transporting bulk materials and waste which are collected from and delivered to municipal construction sites are zero-emission or will use sustainable biofuel from 2022. It is considered that the players in the market will need some time to adjust to the transition, and that it will take a little while before all contracts are implemented with zero-emission/sustainable biofuel. A half-impact has therefore been used in 2020 and 2021.

Measure 12. Pilot city for zero-emission heavy vehicles

The impact of the measure is estimated to be 3,800 tonnes CO₂e in 2022 and 17,400 tonnes CO₂e in 2025. This is in addition to 2,000 tonnes CO₂e per year from climate requirements for bulk material transport (measure 11). The calculation of the impact of the measure is based on a trend in the development of the number of registered electric and biogas-powered trucks in Oslo. For electric trucks, further exponential growth is expected through to 2025. Further linear growth is expected for biogas-powered trucks. A ceiling has been established according to which the proportion of electric and biogas-powered vehicles cannot exceed 45 %, as surveys from Hafslund (2021) and ZERO (2021) indicate that not all areas of the truck market will be electrified by 2025. The calculation assumes that all existing instruments will continue at full strength. The provision of sufficient charging facilities for heavy vehicles is considered to be particularly important for continuing the development.

Measure 13. Zero emissions/sustainable biofuel in municipal machinery

The impact of the measure is estimated at 900 tonnes CO₂e in 2022 and 1,600 tonnes in 2025. The calculation for the measure is based on reported figures for diesel consumption by construction machinery in the City of Oslo’s Environmental and Climate Report 2020 (City of Oslo, 2021). The emission level from 2018 is used as a baseline in the calculations, i.e. it is assumed that consumption will remain constant at the 2018 level and that emissions will be zero in 2023. It is assumed that emissions will be reduced by 50 % from 2020 to 2022.

Measure 14. Zero-emission public transport – ferries

The impact of the measure is estimated to be 6,500 tonnes CO₂e in 2022 and 9,000 tonnes in 2025 in total for the Nesodden ferries, island ferries and high-speed ferries (from 2025). The estimated reduction in emissions upon transition to all-electric operation for the Nesodden ferries is estimated to be around 5,900 tonnes CO₂e collectively for the three ferries “Kongen”, “Dronningen” and “Prinsen”. This impact will be achieved from 2020. The measure will reduce GHG emissions by 100 % in the port and during crossings. The estimated impact of the measure is based on consumption data reported by Ruter for 2019 (Ruter, 2020b). The reduction in emissions arising from the electrification of the island ferries has been estimated at around 700 tonnes CO₂e from 2022. The calculations are based on reported fuel consumption from 2017-2019. Fuel consumption varies greatly with the weather, and an average from the last three years has therefore been assumed. The current operator uses biodiesel (HVO 100), so the reduction in GHG emissions will in reality be lower. Ruter expects traffic on the island ferries to increase (by 8 %) when the Langøyene route opens following restoration, but this route will be covered by electric operation and is therefore not included in the calculation. The high-speed ferries are expected to switch to zero-emission operation under a new contract in 2024, resulting in a reduction in emissions of 2,300 tonnes CO₂e (Port of Oslo, 2018) per year from 2025. To ensure that the impact of the measure is not overestimated, the calculation only includes emission reductions which are expected to occur within the City of Oslo’s boundaries.

Measure 15. Establishment of shore power

The impact of the measure has been calculated to be 3,800 tonnes CO₂e in 2022 and 3,900 tonnes in 2025 in total for the international ferries and cement ships. The reduction in emissions resulting from the transition to shore power for the international ferries is estimated to be around 2,300 tonnes CO₂e overall for the three ferries “Pearl Seaways”, “Crown Seaways” and “Stena Saga”. The impact will be achieved in 2020. The calculations for Pearl and Crown are based on reported figures concerning the use of shore power in 2019. The calculation for Saga is based on activity data and was taken from the Action plan for Port of Oslo as a Zero-emission Port (Port of Oslo, 2018). Stena Line closed the route to Frederikshavn in spring 2020. Shortly afterwards, DFDS announced that it was planning to launch a new service on the same route, but using the vessels that currently serve the Oslo-Copenhagen route. Whether this will lead to an increase in traffic or reorganisation of the timetable which will result in a reduction in traffic between Oslo and Copenhagen is uncertain, but an increase in traffic is assumed corresponding to what Stena Line has experienced on the route. Overall, there is therefore no change in traffic on the routes between Oslo and Denmark. The reduction in emissions upon transition to shore power for the cement ships at Sydhavna is estimated to be around 1,500 tonnes CO₂e in 2022 and 1,600 tonnes in 2024. These calculations are based on activity data for 2017 and are taken from the Action plan for Port of Oslo as a Zero-emission Port (Port of Oslo, 2018). For the cement ships, there is some risk of underestimation, as the current method does not reflect fuel consumption to power the large pumps that are used while the vessels are in port.

1.3     Uncertainty regarding the measures for which the impact
has been calculated

All quantified measures in the Climate Budget were calculated based on the best available knowledge base and methodology. The measure analysis is based on a series of assumptions concerning changes in variables such as activity levels or technology as a result of measures and instruments that are introduced. There is considerable uncertainty associated with both the magnitude of the emission reductions and the timing of implementation.

The measure analysis in the 2022 Climate Budget is based on updated emission figures for 2019 from the Norwegian Environment Agency’s municipal emissions inventory. Through the climate budget analysis, assumptions are incorporated linked to whether measures or other factors will impact on developments in emissions from 2020 to 2030. For some measures, actual activity data from 2020 is used as a starting point for calculating the future impact. There is uncertainty associated with all prerequisites and assumptions, even though they have been prepared using the latest available knowledge base.

The emission-reducing impact of the measures in the Climate Budget is dependent on actual implementation. The measures must be implemented as planned and without any delays if the overall impact described in the Climate Budget is to be achieved. The emission-reducing impact may be greater or less than estimated.

Table 2 presents an overview of uncertainty linked to the estimated impact of measures in Table 2.2a of Proposition 1/2022, Chapter 2, Climate Budget. The uncertainty is linked to assumptions regarding implementation of the measure (the rate of phasing-in) and the possibility of over- or underestimating impacts. The uncertainty is classified as high, medium or low. An assessment has also been included of the consequences that this will have on the attainment of emission reduction targets in the short term (2025) and the longer term (2030). The consequence is assessed according to the magnitude of the impact of the measure, and is classified as high, medium or low. These are discretionary assessments made by the Agency for Climate.

[1] As regards traffic growth during the years from 2021 to 2030, the figures for 2019 were used as a basis because the coronavirus pandemic has resulted in the distance travelled for taxis in 2020 being lower than normal.

Table 1: Uncertainty per quantified measure in Table 2.2a in Proposition 1/2022